Occams · drafts / survey / grid-001-seed20260912

status: CANDIDATE — generated by `python -m occams survey candidates` from survey record #9 (grid-001, seed 20260912); no standing, no alpha spent; registration is the author's `--yes` naming this cell's id (M12.5) tier: mechanism axis: price_daily relates_to: "TASKS-v4.md M12.5 · docs/adr/0039 · docs/surveys/grid-001-seed20260912.html#cell-89200ec086be73e6"

Survey candidate 89200ec086be73e6 — return_below on index_etfs

A Draft: a proposed Hypothesis carrying a mechanism and a falsifier, with no standing until a human confirms its registration, which is the act that spends alpha. Nothing here has been measured on the measurement partition. Nothing here has cost anything. It was generated from a survey cell; the screen is not a verdict, and the shrinkage from screening 38,976 cells is recorded per question (N6, M12.6).

Mechanism

After a decline of at least 3 % over 1 bars, a liquid US index ETF carries positive EV in net R over the next 3 bars because a fall of that size over-corrects (reversal after a decline of size; ADR-0037)

Universe index_etfs, regime gate none, return_below(lookback=1, percent=3) · market, multi_day · hold 3 · stop percent 3 · no target.

Both interpretations

If true: the winner cell clears the declared floor and beats random entry at the corrected alpha on the measurement partition — the mechanism the survey screened is real after costs on this universe.
If false: the winner cell is not distinguishable from random entry after costs, or does not clear the floor — the screen's margin was selection, and the shrinkage says by how much.

Falsifier

The winner cell's EV in net R at or below the null's corrected quantile, or below the floor the author declares at registration, on the measurement partition.

What the survey showed — definition partition only, zero alpha, not a verdict

tier held · 203 trades · EV gross +0.162, net +0.128 at bounded costs
always-long at this geometry -0.085 over 2,017 · margin +0.213
eras +0.452 / +0.343 / +0.100 · weakest name held out +0.066 · missed entries 0
same-day ρ 0.47 · N eff on the measurement partition 560
lowest affordable floor at k = 4: 0.25 R; at k = 9: — R

Search space

The family's sweep — hold 1, 3, 5, 10, 20, stop 2, 3, 5 — 15 cells; the accountant prices it at 0.15 alpha on the price_daily axis (rate × 15 cells).

Registration — the author's act

python -m occams question register --from-survey archive/surveys/grid-001-seed20260912-c7a.32xlarge --grid surveys/grid-001.toml --ids 89200ec086be73e6 \
    --archive archive --register register/programme-2.jsonl --config configs/programme-2.toml \
    --floor-ev FLOOR --floor-frequency TRADES_PER_YEAR --by NAME --yes

The floor is declared there, by the author; this document supplies none.