Occams · drafts / survey / grid-001-seed20260912

status: CANDIDATE — generated by `python -m occams survey candidates` from survey record #9 (grid-001, seed 20260912); no standing, no alpha spent; registration is the author's `--yes` naming this cell's id (M12.5) tier: mechanism axis: regime relates_to: "TASKS-v4.md M12.5 · docs/adr/0039 · docs/surveys/grid-001-seed20260912.html#cell-f2199b5b297d85bb"

Survey candidate f2199b5b297d85bb — down_run on sp_100

A Draft: a proposed Hypothesis carrying a mechanism and a falsifier, with no standing until a human confirms its registration, which is the act that spends alpha. Nothing here has been measured on the measurement partition. Nothing here has cost anything. It was generated from a survey cell; the screen is not a verdict, and the shrinkage from screening 38,976 cells is recorded per question (N6, M12.6).

Mechanism

After 4 consecutive lower closes, an S&P 100 constituent as listed on 2026-09-12 carries positive EV in net R over the next 5 bars because a streak of declines exhausts short-horizon sellers and the next days correct (reversal after a streak; ADR-0037) — inside the up regime of the classifier frozen on SPY (F11)

Universe sp_100, regime gate up, down_run(runs=4) · market, multi_day · hold 5 · stop percent 2 · no target.

Both interpretations

If true: the winner cell clears the declared floor and beats random entry at the corrected alpha on the measurement partition — the mechanism the survey screened is real after costs on this universe.
If false: the winner cell is not distinguishable from random entry after costs, or does not clear the floor — the screen's margin was selection, and the shrinkage says by how much.

Falsifier

The winner cell's EV in net R at or below the null's corrected quantile, or below the floor the author declares at registration, on the measurement partition.

What the survey showed — definition partition only, zero alpha, not a verdict

tier held · 3,739 trades · EV gross +0.307, net +0.256 at bounded costs
always-long at this geometry +0.017 over 33,610 · margin +0.239
eras +0.260 / +0.382 / +0.052 · weakest name held out +0.238 · missed entries 0
same-day ρ 0.17 · N eff on the measurement partition 5,671
lowest affordable floor at k = 4: 0.15 R; at k = 9: 0.15 R

Search space

The family's sweep — hold 1, 3, 5, 10, 20, stop 2, 3, 5 — 15 cells; the accountant prices it at 0.15 alpha on the regime axis (rate × 15 cells).

Registration — the author's act

python -m occams question register --from-survey archive/surveys/grid-001-seed20260912-c7a.32xlarge --grid surveys/grid-001.toml --ids f2199b5b297d85bb \
    --archive archive --register register/programme-2.jsonl --config configs/programme-2.toml \
    --floor-ev FLOOR --floor-frequency TRADES_PER_YEAR --by NAME --yes

The floor is declared there, by the author; this document supplies none.