Survey grid-001 · seed 20260912

Every cell of the grid on the definition partition only, at zero alpha, against the always-long baseline at the same geometry. Colour is trust, never profit. Nothing here is a verdict; a cell becomes a question only by the author's registration (M12.5).

grid b98ce89d7cd8 · results 80f551b4de5c · 38,976 cells · classifier 0434836a176a · computed on x86_64 Linux python 3.12.3 numpy 2.5.3 · Register record #9 (SurveyRecorded)

1 · The grid in words

grid-001, declared 2026-09-12, sha b98ce89d7cd8; 1,920 families, 38,976 cells. A family is the cells that share everything but the swept geometry: the sweep a registered question would carry.

Mechanisms — every kind on the closed entry enum with a mechanism sentence:

breakout_high as a stop order, 4 parameterisations: lookback=1; lookback=5; lookback=20; lookback=50 · horizons multi_day, intraday
breakout_low as a limit order, 4 parameterisations: lookback=1; lookback=5; lookback=20; lookback=50 · horizons multi_day, intraday
close_above_ma as a market order, 4 parameterisations: lookback=10; lookback=20; lookback=50; lookback=200 · horizons multi_day
close_below_ma as a market order, 4 parameterisations: lookback=10; lookback=20; lookback=50; lookback=200 · horizons multi_day
down_run as a market order, 3 parameterisations: runs=2; runs=3; runs=4 · horizons multi_day
return_below as a market order, 4 parameterisations: lookback=1, percent=2; lookback=1, percent=3; lookback=5, percent=5; lookback=10, percent=8 · horizons multi_day
pullback_in_trend as a market order, 3 parameterisations: short=5, long=50; short=10, long=100; short=20, long=200 · horizons multi_day

Regimes: none, up, down, ranging (none is no gate; the rest read one frozen classifier). Holds 1, 3, 5, 10, 20; intraday: holds 1, targets 2R, 3R. Stops percent 2, 3, 5 · atr 1.5, 2, 3 over 14 bars. Targets none, 2R, 3R.

Universes, each a Register record with its calendar frozen:

index_etfs — a liquid US index ETF; regime read on SPY
sector_etfs — a US sector ETF; regime read on SPY
dow_30 — a Dow 30 constituent as listed on 2026-09-12; regime read on SPY
sp_100 — an S&P 100 constituent as listed on 2026-09-12; regime read on SPY

2 · Mechanism × universe, by trust

held EV and margin positive, positive in every era and with every name held out, ≥100 trades · positive EV and margin positive over ≥100 trades · margin only the margin over always-long is positive · refused the run was refused by name — a family with no auditor, or the whole-run refusal that preceded ADR-0041

mechanism · order	index_etfs	sector_etfs	dow_30	sp_100
breakout_high(lookback=1) · stop	heldbest margin +0.105 · 4 held	positivebest margin +0.041 · 0 held · 142 refused	positivebest margin +0.007 · 0 held	positivebest margin +0.004 · 0 held · 11 refused
breakout_high(lookback=5) · stop	positivebest margin +0.118 · 0 held	heldbest margin +0.073 · 3 held	heldbest margin +0.021 · 2 held	heldbest margin +0.014 · 6 held · 7 refused
breakout_high(lookback=20) · stop	positivebest margin +0.254 · 0 held	positivebest margin +0.071 · 0 held	positivebest margin +0.034 · 0 held	positivebest margin +0.010 · 0 held · 89 refused
breakout_high(lookback=50) · stop	positivebest margin +0.227 · 0 held	positivebest margin +0.106 · 0 held	heldbest margin +0.039 · 3 held · 112 refused	positivebest margin +0.013 · 0 held · 76 refused
breakout_low(lookback=1) · limit	refused408 cells	refused408 cells	refused408 cells	refused408 cells
breakout_low(lookback=5) · limit	refused408 cells	refused408 cells	refused408 cells	refused408 cells
breakout_low(lookback=20) · limit	refused408 cells	refused408 cells	refused408 cells	refused408 cells
breakout_low(lookback=50) · limit	refused408 cells	refused408 cells	refused408 cells	refused408 cells
close_above_ma(lookback=10) · market	positivebest margin +0.185 · 0 held	heldbest margin +0.078 · 3 held · 90 refused	heldbest margin +0.074 · 11 held · 87 refused	heldbest margin +0.018 · 1 held · 33 refused
close_above_ma(lookback=20) · market	heldbest margin +0.291 · 4 held	positivebest margin +0.087 · 0 held	heldbest margin +0.080 · 36 held · 24 refused	heldbest margin +0.028 · 3 held · 24 refused
close_above_ma(lookback=50) · market	heldbest margin +0.336 · 5 held	positivebest margin +0.054 · 0 held	heldbest margin +0.066 · 13 held · 27 refused	heldbest margin +0.048 · 25 held · 24 refused
close_above_ma(lookback=200) · market	positivebest margin +0.292 · 0 held	positivebest margin +0.044 · 0 held	positivebest margin +0.035 · 0 held · 63 refused	positivebest margin +0.020 · 0 held · 52 refused
close_below_ma(lookback=10) · market	heldbest margin +0.102 · 13 held	heldbest margin +0.083 · 21 held	heldbest margin +0.071 · 4 held · 3 refused	heldbest margin +0.070 · 35 held · 28 refused
close_below_ma(lookback=20) · market	heldbest margin +0.054 · 2 held	heldbest margin +0.135 · 51 held · 36 refused	heldbest margin +0.064 · 2 held · 6 refused	heldbest margin +0.060 · 22 held · 52 refused
close_below_ma(lookback=50) · market	positivebest margin +0.095 · 0 held	heldbest margin +0.066 · 21 held	heldbest margin +0.085 · 4 held	heldbest margin +0.047 · 5 held · 47 refused
close_below_ma(lookback=200) · market	heldbest margin +0.037 · 3 held	heldbest margin +0.187 · 29 held	heldbest margin +0.038 · 9 held · 12 refused	heldbest margin +0.038 · 19 held · 78 refused
down_run(runs=2) · market	heldbest margin +0.120 · 4 held	heldbest margin +0.111 · 27 held	heldbest margin +0.094 · 28 held · 18 refused	heldbest margin +0.095 · 66 held · 68 refused
down_run(runs=3) · market	heldbest margin +0.466 · 9 held	heldbest margin +0.268 · 71 held	heldbest margin +0.156 · 22 held · 231 refused	heldbest margin +0.162 · 80 held · 167 refused
down_run(runs=4) · market	heldbest margin +0.917 · 11 held	heldbest margin +0.294 · 29 held	heldbest margin +0.231 · 149 held	heldbest margin +0.255 · 188 held · 11 refused
return_below(lookback=1, percent=2) · market	heldbest margin +0.197 · 12 held	heldbest margin +0.188 · 8 held	heldbest margin +0.077 · 64 held	heldbest margin +0.082 · 68 held · 92 refused
return_below(lookback=1, percent=3) · market	heldbest margin +0.552 · 62 held	heldbest margin +0.760 · 17 held	heldbest margin +0.071 · 54 held	heldbest margin +0.120 · 75 held · 26 refused
return_below(lookback=5, percent=5) · market	heldbest margin +0.569 · 18 held	heldbest margin +0.287 · 27 held	heldbest margin +0.134 · 57 held · 8 refused	heldbest margin +0.108 · 109 held · 121 refused
return_below(lookback=10, percent=8) · market	positivebest margin +0.850 · 0 held	heldbest margin +0.472 · 13 held	heldbest margin +0.128 · 73 held · 9 refused	heldbest margin +0.132 · 91 held · 169 refused
pullback_in_trend(long=50, short=5) · market	positivebest margin +1.029 · 0 held	heldbest margin +0.170 · 5 held	heldbest margin +0.152 · 69 held · 18 refused	heldbest margin +0.108 · 57 held · 85 refused
pullback_in_trend(long=100, short=10) · market	positivebest margin +0.338 · 0 held	heldbest margin +0.123 · 19 held	heldbest margin +0.130 · 21 held	heldbest margin +0.128 · 43 held · 98 refused
pullback_in_trend(long=200, short=20) · market	positivebest margin +0.192 · 0 held	heldbest margin +0.227 · 34 held	positivebest margin +0.070 · 0 held	heldbest margin +0.101 · 4 held · 152 refused

Each cell is the best tier the mechanism reached in that universe across regimes and geometry, its best margin over always-long in net R, and how many of its cells are held. Refused means the fill auditor (M5.5) refused every cell.

3 · index_etfs

4 names on the definition partition, 9,744 cells, 147 held; 6,140 days of measurement partition untouched.

Refused by name: 1,632 cells (breakout 1,632); 0 cells have a refused baseline and therefore no margin.

Top 20 by margin over always-long

tier	regime	mechanism	geometry	trades	EV net R	always-long	margin	eras	min, one name out	N eff, measurement	lowest floor, k=4
margin	down	pullback_in_trend(long=50, short=5) · market	multi_day · hold 20 · stop percent 2 · no target	49	+0.852	-0.178	+1.029	+0.510 / +1.325 / +0.793	+0.785	137	—
margin	up	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 10 · stop percent 2 · no target	63	+0.750	-0.167	+0.917	+1.238 / +0.914 / +0.442	+0.590	165	—
margin	up	return_below(lookback=10, percent=8) · market	multi_day · hold 10 · stop percent 2 · no target	28	+0.684	-0.167	+0.850	— / +1.682 / +0.517	+0.509	81	—
margin	down	pullback_in_trend(long=50, short=5) · market	multi_day · hold 20 · stop percent 3 · no target	42	+0.672	-0.126	+0.798	+0.340 / +1.472 / +0.584	+0.587	107	—
margin	up	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 10 · stop percent 2 · target 3R	63	+0.640	-0.159	+0.798	+1.233 / +0.887 / +0.219	+0.448	151	—
margin	up	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 20 · stop percent 2 · target 3R	60	+0.662	-0.136	+0.797	+0.850 / +0.901 / +0.403	+0.524	149	—
margin	up	return_below(lookback=10, percent=8) · market	multi_day · hold 5 · stop percent 2 · no target	29	+0.557	-0.123	+0.680	— / +2.721 / +0.211	+0.348	79	—
margin	up	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 5 · stop percent 2 · no target	67	+0.544	-0.123	+0.667	+0.916 / +0.741 / +0.226	+0.362	166	—
margin	up	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 20 · stop percent 2 · no target	58	+0.484	-0.135	+0.619	+0.850 / +0.758 / +0.118	+0.215	167	—
margin	up	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 5 · stop percent 2 · target 3R	67	+0.485	-0.127	+0.613	+0.916 / +0.645 / +0.183	+0.315	167	—
margin	up	return_below(lookback=10, percent=8) · market	multi_day · hold 10 · stop percent 3 · no target	24	+0.534	-0.079	+0.612	— / +1.393 / +0.362	+0.355	69	—
margin	down	pullback_in_trend(long=50, short=5) · market	multi_day · hold 20 · stop percent 3 · target 3R	43	+0.464	-0.131	+0.595	+0.340 / +1.472 / +0.331	+0.382	107	—
margin	up	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 20 · stop percent 2 · target 2R	61	+0.448	-0.144	+0.592	+0.992 / +0.651 / +0.099	+0.205	165	—
margin	down	pullback_in_trend(long=50, short=5) · market	multi_day · hold 20 · stop atr 1.5 · no target	37	+0.492	-0.094	+0.586	+0.249 / +0.695 / +0.482	+0.405	86	—
margin	down	pullback_in_trend(long=50, short=5) · market	multi_day · hold 20 · stop percent 5 · no target	38	+0.505	-0.078	+0.583	+0.204 / +1.086 / +0.438	+0.356	93	—
margin	up	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 10 · stop atr 1.5 · target 3R	60	+0.537	-0.043	+0.581	+1.801 / +0.713 / -0.100	+0.181	150	—
margin	ranging	return_below(lookback=5, percent=5) · market	multi_day · hold 20 · stop percent 3 · target 3R	26	+0.694	+0.125	+0.569	+0.434 / -1.034 / +0.856	+0.633	77	—
margin	up	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 10 · stop percent 2 · target 2R	63	+0.428	-0.140	+0.568	+1.158 / +0.663 / -0.025	+0.222	153	—
margin	ranging	pullback_in_trend(long=50, short=5) · market	multi_day · hold 20 · stop percent 2 · target 3R	70	+0.507	-0.057	+0.564	+0.437 / +1.032 / +0.315	+0.410	184	—
margin	up	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 5 · stop percent 2 · target 2R	67	+0.429	-0.132	+0.562	+0.873 / +0.613 / +0.099	+0.253	173	—

Cells, in full

1 · index_etfs · up · down_run(runs=3) · market held

After 3 consecutive lower closes, a liquid US index ETF carries positive EV in net R over the next 20 bars because a streak of declines exhausts short-horizon sellers and the next days correct (reversal after a streak; ADR-0037) — inside the up regime of the classifier frozen on SPY (F11)

cell e2752d8cad471f8f · spec 6ba2c16125b0 · multi_day · hold 20 · stop percent 2 · target 3R · axis regime

140 trades on the definition partition; EV gross +0.317, net +0.266 at bounded costs; always-long at this geometry -0.136 over 418; margin +0.401. 4 names traded; weakest QQQ +0.110 over 31, strongest IWM +0.504 over 8. Every name held out: at worst +0.170.

era 1 1993-01-29 → 1996-06-10
17 trades · EV +0.469
without it +0.238

era 2 1996-06-10 → 1999-10-21
54 trades · EV +0.434
without it +0.160

era 3 1999-10-21 → 2003-03-02
69 trades · EV +0.084
without it +0.443

Same-day ρ 0.46, design effect 1.17; the measurement partition would afford about 367 effective trades at this firing rate; at the cell's own σ (1.72) and k = 4, 0.05 R needs 17,688, 0.075 R needs 7,861, 0.1 R needs 4,422, 0.15 R needs 1,966, 0.2 R needs 1,106, 0.25 R needs 708.

Registering it: not registrable as it stands: no floor in the table is affordable on the measurement partition. The question would carry the family's sweep of 30 cells; the accountant prices it at 0.3000 alpha on the regime axis (rate × 30 cells).

2 · index_etfs · down · close_above_ma(lookback=50) · market held

After a close above its 50-bar moving average, a liquid US index ETF carries positive EV in net R over the next 20 bars because participants under-react and the move persists (trend persistence) — inside the down regime of the classifier frozen on SPY (F11)

cell 09f0deae27f306f9 · spec 58f2db2211af · multi_day · hold 20 · stop percent 2 · target 3R · axis regime

122 trades on the definition partition; EV gross +0.200, net +0.149 at bounded costs; always-long at this geometry -0.187 over 543; margin +0.336. 4 names traded; weakest DIA -0.070 over 30, strongest SPY +0.585 over 23. Every name held out: at worst +0.048.

era 1 1993-01-29 → 1996-06-10
3 trades · EV +0.692
without it +0.135

era 2 1996-06-10 → 1999-10-21
16 trades · EV +0.556
without it +0.088

era 3 1999-10-21 → 2003-03-02
103 trades · EV +0.070
without it +0.577

Same-day ρ 0.36, design effect 1.09; the measurement partition would afford about 343 effective trades at this firing rate; at the cell's own σ (1.77) and k = 4, 0.05 R needs 18,673, 0.075 R needs 8,299, 0.1 R needs 4,669, 0.15 R needs 2,075, 0.2 R needs 1,168, 0.25 R needs 747.

3 · index_etfs · down · close_above_ma(lookback=20) · market held

After a close above its 20-bar moving average, a liquid US index ETF carries positive EV in net R over the next 20 bars because participants under-react and the move persists (trend persistence) — inside the down regime of the classifier frozen on SPY (F11)

cell 311dde083ce7a0b4 · spec 129b994bc30a · multi_day · hold 20 · stop percent 2 · target 3R · axis regime

206 trades on the definition partition; EV gross +0.154, net +0.103 at bounded costs; always-long at this geometry -0.187 over 543; margin +0.291. 4 names traded; weakest QQQ -0.005 over 78, strongest SPY +0.317 over 44. Every name held out: at worst +0.045.

era 1 1993-01-29 → 1996-06-10
4 trades · EV +0.699
without it +0.092

era 2 1996-06-10 → 1999-10-21
21 trades · EV +0.160
without it +0.097

era 3 1999-10-21 → 2003-03-02
181 trades · EV +0.084
without it +0.246

Same-day ρ 0.55, design effect 1.22; the measurement partition would afford about 519 effective trades at this firing rate; at the cell's own σ (1.76) and k = 4, 0.05 R needs 18,497, 0.075 R needs 8,221, 0.1 R needs 4,625, 0.15 R needs 2,056, 0.2 R needs 1,157, 0.25 R needs 740.

4 · index_etfs · up · down_run(runs=3) · market held

cell 8b0ace19753443e9 · spec 669783cf36a3 · multi_day · hold 20 · stop percent 2 · target 2R · axis regime

147 trades on the definition partition; EV gross +0.187, net +0.136 at bounded costs; always-long at this geometry -0.144 over 488; margin +0.280. 4 names traded; weakest DIA -0.019 over 36, strongest IWM +0.504 over 8. Every name held out: at worst +0.050.

era 1 1993-01-29 → 1996-06-10
19 trades · EV +0.585
without it +0.069

era 2 1996-06-10 → 1999-10-21
58 trades · EV +0.151
without it +0.126

era 3 1999-10-21 → 2003-03-02
70 trades · EV +0.001
without it +0.258

Same-day ρ 0.37, design effect 1.13; the measurement partition would afford about 397 effective trades at this firing rate; at the cell's own σ (1.41) and k = 4, 0.05 R needs 11,898, 0.075 R needs 5,288, 0.1 R needs 2,975, 0.15 R needs 1,322, 0.2 R needs 744, 0.25 R needs 476.

4 · sector_etfs

9 names on the definition partition, 9,744 cells, 378 held; 5,063 days of measurement partition untouched.

Refused by name: 1,900 cells (breakout 1,774, trend 126); 2,324 cells have a refused baseline and therefore no margin.

Top 20 by margin over always-long

tier	regime	mechanism	geometry	trades	EV net R	always-long	margin	eras	min, one name out	N eff, measurement	lowest floor, k=4
margin	ranging	return_below(lookback=1, percent=3) · market	multi_day · hold 20 · stop percent 2 · no target	49	+0.780	+0.020	+0.760	+1.448 / +0.027 / -1.051	+0.530	94	—
margin	ranging	return_below(lookback=1, percent=3) · market	multi_day · hold 10 · stop percent 2 · no target	50	+0.484	-0.002	+0.485	+0.800 / +0.304 / -1.051	+0.298	86	—
positive	down	return_below(lookback=10, percent=8) · market	multi_day · hold 20 · stop percent 2 · no target	206	+0.551	+0.079	+0.472	+0.502 / +0.717 / -1.051	+0.466	248	—
margin	ranging	return_below(lookback=10, percent=8) · market	multi_day · hold 20 · stop percent 2 · no target	43	+0.484	+0.020	+0.464	+0.736 / +1.142 / -1.101	+0.225	85	—
margin	ranging	return_below(lookback=10, percent=8) · market	multi_day · hold 20 · stop percent 3 · no target	39	+0.388	-0.025	+0.413	+0.608 / +1.221 / -1.056	+0.208	69	—
margin	ranging	return_below(lookback=10, percent=8) · market	multi_day · hold 20 · stop percent 2 · target 3R	47	+0.437	+0.031	+0.406	+0.382 / +2.149 / -0.514	+0.357	91	—
margin	ranging	return_below(lookback=10, percent=8) · market	multi_day · hold 20 · stop atr 2 · target 3R	30	+0.380	-0.009	+0.389	+0.604 / +0.562 / -1.022	+0.236	61	—
margin	ranging	return_below(lookback=1, percent=3) · market	multi_day · hold 20 · stop percent 2 · target 3R	52	+0.414	+0.031	+0.383	+0.734 / +0.175 / -1.051	+0.340	103	—
margin	ranging	return_below(lookback=1, percent=3) · market	multi_day · hold 20 · stop percent 3 · no target	49	+0.334	-0.025	+0.359	+0.698 / +0.014 / -1.034	+0.145	91	—
margin	ranging	return_below(lookback=10, percent=8) · market	multi_day · hold 20 · stop atr 2 · no target	30	+0.323	-0.022	+0.345	+0.522 / +0.562 / -1.022	+0.244	61	—
margin	up	return_below(lookback=10, percent=8) · market	multi_day · hold 5 · stop percent 3 · target 3R	60	+0.307	-0.037	+0.344	+0.354 / +0.144 / +0.492	+0.289	101	—
margin	ranging	return_below(lookback=1, percent=3) · market	multi_day · hold 10 · stop percent 2 · target 3R	52	+0.357	+0.014	+0.343	+0.665 / +0.127 / -1.051	+0.230	100	—
margin	up	return_below(lookback=10, percent=8) · market	multi_day · hold 5 · stop percent 3 · no target	60	+0.294	-0.039	+0.333	+0.334 / +0.144 / +0.492	+0.265	101	—
margin	ranging	return_below(lookback=1, percent=3) · market	multi_day · hold 20 · stop atr 1.5 · no target	44	+0.258	-0.048	+0.306	+0.550 / -0.027 / -1.044	+0.104	81	—
margin	ranging	return_below(lookback=10, percent=8) · market	multi_day · hold 20 · stop atr 2 · target 2R	30	+0.328	+0.024	+0.305	+0.500 / +0.687 / -1.022	+0.213	61	—
held	down	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 20 · stop atr 1.5 · target 3R	140	+0.340	+0.046	+0.294	+0.245 / +0.370 / +0.607	+0.306	205	—
margin	ranging	return_below(lookback=10, percent=8) · market	multi_day · hold 20 · stop percent 3 · target 2R	42	+0.295	+0.003	+0.293	+0.327 / +1.366 / -0.605	+0.227	79	—
held	down	return_below(lookback=5, percent=5) · market	multi_day · hold 20 · stop percent 2 · no target	287	+0.366	+0.079	+0.287	+0.187 / +0.407 / +1.454	+0.298	402	—
margin	ranging	return_below(lookback=10, percent=8) · market	multi_day · hold 10 · stop percent 2 · target 3R	47	+0.300	+0.014	+0.286	+0.236 / +1.890 / -0.514	+0.212	89	—
margin	ranging	return_below(lookback=10, percent=8) · market	multi_day · hold 20 · stop atr 3 · target 2R	28	+0.289	+0.005	+0.284	+0.498 / +0.308 / -0.723	+0.207	57	—

Cells, in full

1 · sector_etfs · down · down_run(runs=4) · market held

After 4 consecutive lower closes, a US sector ETF carries positive EV in net R over the next 20 bars because a streak of declines exhausts short-horizon sellers and the next days correct (reversal after a streak; ADR-0037) — inside the down regime of the classifier frozen on SPY (F11)

cell aafb8c90518ac145 · spec b94b02ce03eb · multi_day · hold 20 · stop atr 1.5 · target 3R · axis regime

140 trades on the definition partition; EV gross +0.369, net +0.340 at bounded costs; always-long at this geometry +0.046 over 601; margin +0.294. 9 names traded; weakest XLU -0.021 over 14, strongest XLP +0.623 over 12. Every name held out: at worst +0.306.

era 1 1998-12-22 → 2001-09-29
58 trades · EV +0.245
without it +0.408

era 2 2001-09-29 → 2004-07-08
69 trades · EV +0.370
without it +0.311

era 3 2004-07-08 → 2007-04-17
13 trades · EV +0.607
without it +0.313

Same-day ρ 0.64, design effect 1.39; the measurement partition would afford about 205 effective trades at this firing rate; at the cell's own σ (1.75) and k = 4, 0.05 R needs 18,228, 0.075 R needs 8,102, 0.1 R needs 4,557, 0.15 R needs 2,026, 0.2 R needs 1,140, 0.25 R needs 730.

2 · sector_etfs · down · return_below(lookback=5, percent=5) · market held

After a decline of at least 5 % over 5 bars, a US sector ETF carries positive EV in net R over the next 20 bars because a fall of that size over-corrects (reversal after a decline of size; ADR-0037) — inside the down regime of the classifier frozen on SPY (F11)

cell 7bb79763dcaf0cd4 · spec 7de742e53d12 · multi_day · hold 20 · stop percent 2 · no target · axis regime

287 trades on the definition partition; EV gross +0.417, net +0.366 at bounded costs; always-long at this geometry +0.079 over 801; margin +0.287. 9 names traded; weakest XLK -0.121 over 76, strongest XLP +1.221 over 15. Every name held out: at worst +0.298.

era 1 1998-12-22 → 2001-09-29
139 trades · EV +0.187
without it +0.534

era 2 2001-09-29 → 2004-07-08
130 trades · EV +0.407
without it +0.332

era 3 2004-07-08 → 2007-04-17
18 trades · EV +1.454
without it +0.293

Same-day ρ 0.47, design effect 1.45; the measurement partition would afford about 402 effective trades at this firing rate; at the cell's own σ (3.38) and k = 4, 0.05 R needs 68,460, 0.075 R needs 30,427, 0.1 R needs 17,115, 0.15 R needs 7,607, 0.2 R needs 4,279, 0.25 R needs 2,739.

Registering it: not registrable as it stands: no floor in the table is affordable on the measurement partition. The question would carry the family's sweep of 15 cells; the accountant prices it at 0.1500 alpha on the regime axis (rate × 15 cells).

3 · sector_etfs · down · down_run(runs=3) · market held

After 3 consecutive lower closes, a US sector ETF carries positive EV in net R over the next 20 bars because a streak of declines exhausts short-horizon sellers and the next days correct (reversal after a streak; ADR-0037) — inside the down regime of the classifier frozen on SPY (F11)

cell 767ae04fffd6579b · spec 2f87f53ecc0a · multi_day · hold 20 · stop percent 2 · no target · axis regime

341 trades on the definition partition; EV gross +0.398, net +0.347 at bounded costs; always-long at this geometry +0.079 over 801; margin +0.268. 9 names traded; weakest XLK -0.123 over 58, strongest XLF +1.131 over 37. Every name held out: at worst +0.252.

era 1 1998-12-22 → 2001-09-29
155 trades · EV +0.272
without it +0.409

era 2 2001-09-29 → 2004-07-08
142 trades · EV +0.095
without it +0.527

era 3 2004-07-08 → 2007-04-17
44 trades · EV +1.423
without it +0.188

Same-day ρ 0.79, design effect 1.71; the measurement partition would afford about 406 effective trades at this firing rate; at the cell's own σ (2.88) and k = 4, 0.05 R needs 49,431, 0.075 R needs 21,970, 0.1 R needs 12,358, 0.15 R needs 5,493, 0.2 R needs 3,090, 0.25 R needs 1,978.

4 · sector_etfs · down · down_run(runs=3) · market held

cell 9d7c23c8f274e9b7 · spec e75bcb227e69 · multi_day · hold 20 · stop percent 3 · target 3R · axis regime

313 trades on the definition partition; EV gross +0.296, net +0.262 at bounded costs; always-long at this geometry -0.000 over 764; margin +0.263. 9 names traded; weakest XLU -0.009 over 32, strongest XLV +0.451 over 31. Every name held out: at worst +0.242.

era 1 1998-12-22 → 2001-09-29
138 trades · EV +0.158
without it +0.345

era 2 2001-09-29 → 2004-07-08
133 trades · EV +0.172
without it +0.329

era 3 2004-07-08 → 2007-04-17
42 trades · EV +0.892
without it +0.165

Same-day ρ 0.49, design effect 1.39; the measurement partition would afford about 459 effective trades at this firing rate; at the cell's own σ (1.73) and k = 4, 0.05 R needs 17,783, 0.075 R needs 7,904, 0.1 R needs 4,446, 0.15 R needs 1,976, 0.2 R needs 1,112, 0.25 R needs 712.

5 · dow_30

27 names on the definition partition, 9,744 cells, 621 held; 6,152 days of measurement partition untouched.

Refused by name: 2,250 cells (breakout 1,744, reversal 284, trend 222); 754 cells have a refused baseline and therefore no margin.

Top 20 by margin over always-long

tier	regime	mechanism	geometry	trades	EV net R	always-long	margin	eras	min, one name out	N eff, measurement	lowest floor, k=4
positive	up	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 20 · stop percent 2 · target 3R	1,229	+0.197	-0.034	+0.231	+0.464 / +0.202 / -0.032	+0.169	2,024	0.2 R
positive	none	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 20 · stop percent 2 · target 3R	2,345	+0.168	-0.061	+0.229	+0.391 / +0.221 / -0.007	+0.148	3,900	0.15 R
held	none	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 20 · stop percent 2 · target 2R	2,388	+0.128	-0.087	+0.215	+0.259 / +0.160 / +0.024	+0.112	3,966	0.1 R
positive	up	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 20 · stop percent 2 · target 2R	1,254	+0.140	-0.075	+0.214	+0.329 / +0.177 / -0.083	+0.120	2,056	0.15 R
held	ranging	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 3 · stop percent 2 · no target	414	+0.201	-0.012	+0.213	+0.281 / +0.201 / +0.128	+0.181	626	—
held	ranging	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 3 · stop percent 2 · target 3R	415	+0.184	-0.027	+0.211	+0.246 / +0.097 / +0.180	+0.169	622	0.25 R
held	down	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 20 · stop percent 2 · no target	593	+0.328	+0.117	+0.211	+0.477 / +1.000 / +0.216	+0.226	1,158	—
positive	up	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 5 · stop percent 2 · target 3R	1,252	+0.168	-0.038	+0.207	+0.264 / +0.235 / -0.028	+0.151	2,102	0.15 R
positive	up	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 10 · stop percent 2 · target 3R	1,245	+0.170	-0.036	+0.206	+0.357 / +0.199 / -0.038	+0.145	2,096	0.2 R
positive	up	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 10 · stop percent 2 · target 2R	1,255	+0.132	-0.072	+0.205	+0.304 / +0.170 / -0.075	+0.112	2,061	0.15 R
positive	up	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 5 · stop percent 2 · no target	1,251	+0.218	+0.015	+0.203	+0.327 / +0.310 / -0.036	+0.188	2,117	0.2 R
held	none	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 10 · stop percent 2 · target 2R	2,391	+0.117	-0.086	+0.203	+0.224 / +0.154 / +0.023	+0.100	3,967	0.1 R
positive	none	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 10 · stop percent 2 · target 3R	2,368	+0.140	-0.060	+0.200	+0.298 / +0.213 / -0.011	+0.122	3,968	0.15 R
held	none	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 5 · stop percent 2 · target 3R	2,381	+0.143	-0.055	+0.198	+0.230 / +0.218 / +0.032	+0.128	3,940	0.15 R
held	none	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 5 · stop percent 2 · no target	2,378	+0.202	+0.005	+0.196	+0.293 / +0.310 / +0.062	+0.185	4,154	0.15 R
held	none	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 3 · stop percent 2 · target 3R	2,386	+0.142	-0.051	+0.193	+0.204 / +0.189 / +0.067	+0.130	3,900	0.1 R
held	up	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 20 · stop percent 3 · target 2R	1,091	+0.175	-0.012	+0.188	+0.366 / +0.171 / +0.025	+0.159	1,836	0.15 R
held	up	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 20 · stop percent 3 · target 3R	1,066	+0.219	+0.033	+0.186	+0.333 / +0.263 / +0.052	+0.190	1,771	0.2 R
positive	up	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 3 · stop percent 2 · no target	1,255	+0.162	-0.022	+0.184	+0.216 / +0.246 / -0.033	+0.135	2,118	0.15 R
held	down	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 3 · stop percent 2 · target 3R	626	+0.106	-0.076	+0.182	+0.182 / +0.078 / +0.101	+0.082	973	0.2 R

Cells, in full

1 · dow_30 · none · down_run(runs=4) · market held

After 4 consecutive lower closes, a Dow 30 constituent as listed on 2026-09-12 carries positive EV in net R over the next 20 bars because a streak of declines exhausts short-horizon sellers and the next days correct (reversal after a streak; ADR-0037)

cell 3fff965a58639eae · spec 2be7c92b34bd · multi_day · hold 20 · stop percent 2 · target 2R · axis price_daily

2,388 trades on the definition partition; EV gross +0.179, net +0.128 at bounded costs; always-long at this geometry -0.087 over 24,221; margin +0.215. 27 names traded; weakest AAPL -0.223 over 110, strongest PG +0.583 over 83. Every name held out: at worst +0.112.

era 1 1993-01-04 → 1996-05-18
604 trades · EV +0.259
without it +0.084

era 2 1996-05-18 → 1999-09-30
781 trades · EV +0.160
without it +0.113

era 3 1999-09-30 → 2003-02-12
1,003 trades · EV +0.024
without it +0.203

Same-day ρ 0.19, design effect 1.19; the measurement partition would afford about 3,966 effective trades at this firing rate; at the cell's own σ (1.50) and k = 4, 0.05 R needs 13,413, 0.075 R needs 5,962, 0.1 R needs 3,354, 0.15 R needs 1,491, 0.2 R needs 839, 0.25 R needs 537.

Registering it: registrable in principle: three names or more, the sweep holds the plateau, and the measurement partition affords a floor of 0.1 R at k = 4. The question would carry the family's sweep of 30 cells; the accountant prices it at 0.3000 alpha on the price_daily axis (rate × 30 cells).

2 · dow_30 · ranging · down_run(runs=4) · market held

After 4 consecutive lower closes, a Dow 30 constituent as listed on 2026-09-12 carries positive EV in net R over the next 3 bars because a streak of declines exhausts short-horizon sellers and the next days correct (reversal after a streak; ADR-0037) — inside the ranging regime of the classifier frozen on SPY (F11)

cell 93a89febd39fb14a · spec 208145fbb11f · multi_day · hold 3 · stop percent 2 · no target · axis regime

414 trades on the definition partition; EV gross +0.253, net +0.201 at bounded costs; always-long at this geometry -0.012 over 5,416; margin +0.213. 27 names traded; weakest SHW -0.505 over 22, strongest NVDA +0.877 over 7. Every name held out: at worst +0.181.

era 1 1993-01-04 → 1996-05-18
152 trades · EV +0.281
without it +0.156

era 2 1996-05-18 → 1999-09-30
100 trades · EV +0.201
without it +0.202

era 3 1999-09-30 → 2003-02-12
162 trades · EV +0.128
without it +0.249

Same-day ρ 0.33, design effect 1.30; the measurement partition would afford about 626 effective trades at this firing rate; at the cell's own σ (1.63) and k = 4, 0.05 R needs 15,789, 0.075 R needs 7,018, 0.1 R needs 3,948, 0.15 R needs 1,755, 0.2 R needs 987, 0.25 R needs 632.

3 · dow_30 · ranging · down_run(runs=4) · market held

cell 4f0326e3644df864 · spec cc656c3a58ab · multi_day · hold 3 · stop percent 2 · target 3R · axis regime

415 trades on the definition partition; EV gross +0.235, net +0.184 at bounded costs; always-long at this geometry -0.027 over 5,624; margin +0.211. 27 names traded; weakest AAPL -0.608 over 12, strongest NVDA +0.663 over 7. Every name held out: at worst +0.169.

era 1 1993-01-04 → 1996-05-18
153 trades · EV +0.246
without it +0.148

era 2 1996-05-18 → 1999-09-30
100 trades · EV +0.097
without it +0.212

era 3 1999-09-30 → 2003-02-12
162 trades · EV +0.180
without it +0.187

Same-day ρ 0.34, design effect 1.31; the measurement partition would afford about 622 effective trades at this firing rate; at the cell's own σ (1.49) and k = 4, 0.05 R needs 13,227, 0.075 R needs 5,879, 0.1 R needs 3,307, 0.15 R needs 1,470, 0.2 R needs 827, 0.25 R needs 530.

Registering it: registrable in principle: three names or more, the sweep holds the plateau, and the measurement partition affords a floor of 0.25 R at k = 4. The question would carry the family's sweep of 30 cells; the accountant prices it at 0.3000 alpha on the regime axis (rate × 30 cells).

4 · dow_30 · down · down_run(runs=4) · market held

cell 0f59116969056f6f · spec 1e7e871bda2b · multi_day · hold 20 · stop percent 2 · no target · axis regime

593 trades on the definition partition; EV gross +0.379, net +0.328 at bounded costs; always-long at this geometry +0.117 over 3,193; margin +0.211. 27 names traded; weakest BA -0.878 over 20, strongest MSFT +2.379 over 17. Every name held out: at worst +0.226.

era 1 1993-01-04 → 1996-05-18
56 trades · EV +0.477
without it +0.312

era 2 1996-05-18 → 1999-09-30
66 trades · EV +1.000
without it +0.243

era 3 1999-09-30 → 2003-02-12
471 trades · EV +0.216
without it +0.760

Same-day ρ 0.01, design effect 1.01; the measurement partition would afford about 1,158 effective trades at this firing rate; at the cell's own σ (4.65) and k = 4, 0.05 R needs 129,243, 0.075 R needs 57,442, 0.1 R needs 32,311, 0.15 R needs 14,361, 0.2 R needs 8,078, 0.25 R needs 5,170.

6 · sp_100

83 names on the definition partition, 9,744 cells, 897 held; 6,152 days of measurement partition untouched.

Refused by name: 3,142 cells (breakout 1,815, reversal 989, trend 338); 520 cells have a refused baseline and therefore no margin.

Top 20 by margin over always-long

tier	regime	mechanism	geometry	trades	EV net R	always-long	margin	eras	min, one name out	N eff, measurement	lowest floor, k=4
positive	up	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 20 · stop percent 2 · target 3R	3,669	+0.211	-0.044	+0.255	+0.374 / +0.287 / -0.032	+0.202	5,655	0.1 R
held	up	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 5 · stop percent 2 · no target	3,739	+0.256	+0.017	+0.239	+0.260 / +0.382 / +0.052	+0.238	5,671	0.15 R
positive	up	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 10 · stop percent 2 · target 3R	3,715	+0.192	-0.046	+0.239	+0.319 / +0.273 / -0.031	+0.185	5,712	0.1 R
held	up	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 20 · stop percent 3 · target 3R	3,233	+0.236	+0.012	+0.224	+0.347 / +0.327 / +0.008	+0.227	4,715	0.15 R
positive	up	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 5 · stop percent 2 · target 3R	3,742	+0.178	-0.045	+0.223	+0.230 / +0.271 / -0.007	+0.171	5,761	0.1 R
positive	up	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 20 · stop percent 2 · no target	3,467	+0.334	+0.121	+0.214	+0.299 / +0.604 / -0.065	+0.301	5,983	0.2 R
held	none	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 20 · stop percent 2 · target 3R	7,016	+0.156	-0.054	+0.211	+0.323 / +0.248 / +0.005	+0.150	10,395	0.075 R
positive	up	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 20 · stop percent 3 · target 2R	3,291	+0.185	-0.025	+0.209	+0.329 / +0.243 / -0.020	+0.178	4,980	0.1 R
positive	up	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 20 · stop percent 2 · target 2R	3,742	+0.122	-0.085	+0.207	+0.259 / +0.190 / -0.089	+0.116	5,559	0.1 R
held	ranging	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 5 · stop percent 2 · target 3R	1,200	+0.185	-0.021	+0.205	+0.202 / +0.200 / +0.162	+0.172	1,744	0.2 R
held	ranging	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 5 · stop percent 2 · no target	1,199	+0.248	+0.044	+0.204	+0.286 / +0.284 / +0.197	+0.233	2,075	0.2 R
held	up	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 10 · stop percent 2 · no target	3,674	+0.256	+0.052	+0.203	+0.274 / +0.385 / +0.039	+0.229	5,866	0.15 R
held	none	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 20 · stop percent 2 · no target	6,545	+0.333	+0.132	+0.201	+0.376 / +0.590 / +0.132	+0.313	9,678	0.2 R
positive	up	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 10 · stop percent 2 · target 2R	3,752	+0.117	-0.082	+0.199	+0.244 / +0.181 / -0.079	+0.110	5,551	0.1 R
held	up	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 10 · stop percent 3 · target 3R	3,342	+0.198	+0.004	+0.194	+0.290 / +0.262 / +0.025	+0.191	4,738	0.1 R
held	none	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 10 · stop percent 2 · target 3R	7,088	+0.137	-0.056	+0.192	+0.260 / +0.234 / +0.003	+0.131	10,542	0.075 R
held	up	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 3 · stop percent 2 · no target	3,760	+0.181	-0.010	+0.191	+0.197 / +0.277 / +0.017	+0.166	5,644	0.1 R
held	up	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 5 · stop percent 3 · target 3R	3,410	+0.179	-0.012	+0.191	+0.190 / +0.260 / +0.039	+0.171	4,901	0.1 R
held	ranging	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 20 · stop percent 2 · no target	1,164	+0.334	+0.144	+0.190	+0.445 / +0.617 / +0.090	+0.306	1,936	—
held	none	down_run(runs=4) · market	multi_day · hold 5 · stop percent 2 · no target	7,118	+0.220	+0.031	+0.189	+0.264 / +0.337 / +0.115	+0.211	10,597	0.1 R

Cells, in full

1 · sp_100 · up · down_run(runs=4) · market held

After 4 consecutive lower closes, an S&P 100 constituent as listed on 2026-09-12 carries positive EV in net R over the next 5 bars because a streak of declines exhausts short-horizon sellers and the next days correct (reversal after a streak; ADR-0037) — inside the up regime of the classifier frozen on SPY (F11)

cell f2199b5b297d85bb · spec 65263210fae9 · multi_day · hold 5 · stop percent 2 · no target · axis regime

3,739 trades on the definition partition; EV gross +0.307, net +0.256 at bounded costs; always-long at this geometry +0.017 over 33,610; margin +0.239. 83 names traded; weakest ACN -1.051 over 2, strongest GILD +1.635 over 48. Every name held out: at worst +0.238.

era 1 1993-01-04 → 1996-05-18
849 trades · EV +0.260
without it +0.254

era 2 1996-05-18 → 1999-09-30
1,773 trades · EV +0.382
without it +0.142

era 3 1999-09-30 → 2003-02-12
1,117 trades · EV +0.052
without it +0.343

Same-day ρ 0.17, design effect 1.44; the measurement partition would afford about 5,671 effective trades at this firing rate; at the cell's own σ (2.22) and k = 4, 0.05 R needs 29,473, 0.075 R needs 13,099, 0.1 R needs 7,369, 0.15 R needs 3,275, 0.2 R needs 1,843, 0.25 R needs 1,179.

Registering it: registrable in principle: three names or more, the sweep holds the plateau, and the measurement partition affords a floor of 0.15 R at k = 4. The question would carry the family's sweep of 15 cells; the accountant prices it at 0.1500 alpha on the regime axis (rate × 15 cells).

2 · sp_100 · up · down_run(runs=4) · market held

After 4 consecutive lower closes, an S&P 100 constituent as listed on 2026-09-12 carries positive EV in net R over the next 20 bars because a streak of declines exhausts short-horizon sellers and the next days correct (reversal after a streak; ADR-0037) — inside the up regime of the classifier frozen on SPY (F11)

cell f9d09f4299ed5aa7 · spec 2c88964a743a · multi_day · hold 20 · stop percent 3 · target 3R · axis regime

3,233 trades on the definition partition; EV gross +0.270, net +0.236 at bounded costs; always-long at this geometry +0.012 over 18,902; margin +0.224. 83 names traded; weakest ACN -1.034 over 2, strongest MDLZ +2.966 over 1. Every name held out: at worst +0.227.

era 1 1993-01-04 → 1996-05-18
731 trades · EV +0.347
without it +0.204

era 2 1996-05-18 → 1999-09-30
1,535 trades · EV +0.327
without it +0.154

era 3 1999-09-30 → 2003-02-12
967 trades · EV +0.008
without it +0.334

Same-day ρ 0.21, design effect 1.49; the measurement partition would afford about 4,715 effective trades at this firing rate; at the cell's own σ (1.81) and k = 4, 0.05 R needs 19,573, 0.075 R needs 8,700, 0.1 R needs 4,894, 0.15 R needs 2,175, 0.2 R needs 1,224, 0.25 R needs 783.

Registering it: registrable in principle: three names or more, the sweep holds the plateau, and the measurement partition affords a floor of 0.15 R at k = 4. The question would carry the family's sweep of 30 cells; the accountant prices it at 0.3000 alpha on the regime axis (rate × 30 cells).

3 · sp_100 · none · down_run(runs=4) · market held

cell c00c0c7e6fe3d5fb · spec b32fdc49f700 · multi_day · hold 20 · stop percent 2 · target 3R · axis price_daily

7,016 trades on the definition partition; EV gross +0.207, net +0.156 at bounded costs; always-long at this geometry -0.054 over 61,397; margin +0.211. 83 names traded; weakest ACN -0.480 over 14, strongest AMGN +0.664 over 79. Every name held out: at worst +0.150.

era 1 1993-01-04 → 1996-05-18
1,652 trades · EV +0.323
without it +0.105

era 2 1996-05-18 → 1999-09-30
2,203 trades · EV +0.248
without it +0.114

era 3 1999-09-30 → 2003-02-12
3,161 trades · EV +0.005
without it +0.280

Same-day ρ 0.17, design effect 1.47; the measurement partition would afford about 10,395 effective trades at this firing rate; at the cell's own σ (1.87) and k = 4, 0.05 R needs 20,890, 0.075 R needs 9,285, 0.1 R needs 5,223, 0.15 R needs 2,322, 0.2 R needs 1,306, 0.25 R needs 836.

Registering it: registrable in principle: three names or more, the sweep holds the plateau, and the measurement partition affords a floor of 0.075 R at k = 4. The question would carry the family's sweep of 30 cells; the accountant prices it at 0.3000 alpha on the price_daily axis (rate × 30 cells).

4 · sp_100 · ranging · down_run(runs=4) · market held

cell bb3394ed0820ae72 · spec 4e5f59d807ba · multi_day · hold 5 · stop percent 2 · target 3R · axis regime

1,200 trades on the definition partition; EV gross +0.236, net +0.185 at bounded costs; always-long at this geometry -0.021 over 14,221; margin +0.205. 83 names traded; weakest AAPL -0.608 over 12, strongest ACN +2.949 over 1. Every name held out: at worst +0.172.

era 1 1993-01-04 → 1996-05-18
417 trades · EV +0.202
without it +0.176

era 2 1996-05-18 → 1999-09-30
280 trades · EV +0.200
without it +0.180

era 3 1999-09-30 → 2003-02-12
503 trades · EV +0.162
without it +0.201

Same-day ρ 0.20, design effect 1.50; the measurement partition would afford about 1,744 effective trades at this firing rate; at the cell's own σ (1.66) and k = 4, 0.05 R needs 16,443, 0.075 R needs 7,308, 0.1 R needs 4,111, 0.15 R needs 1,827, 0.2 R needs 1,028, 0.25 R needs 658.

Registering it: registrable in principle: three names or more, the sweep holds the plateau, and the measurement partition affords a floor of 0.2 R at k = 4. The question would carry the family's sweep of 30 cells; the accountant prices it at 0.3000 alpha on the regime axis (rate × 30 cells).